By Marilyn J. Bardsley

November 13, 2006

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Very few people take time out of their day to imagine what life would be like if going to the grocery store could mean a death sentence, not only for you but for your whole family. During a pandemic this could easily be the case.

By the time a pandemic is confirmed, air travel may have already delivered the virus around the world. Because influenza is infectious before symptoms appear, there would be no way to positively identify people who may be infected. It's possible that a pandemic virus could start to show up in your area a couple of weeks after being identified in Hong Kong, Jakarta or Bombay.

When the killer virus does arrive, every aspect of your life will be seriously disrupted. Illness and death on an unprecedented global scale will take an enormous toll on goods and services that we are used to having at our fingertips. Stores, restaurants, schools, offices, day care centers, banks, and government services may close down for weeks at a time. Transportation and delivery of food, medicines, gasoline and other supplies will be interrupted, creating severe shortages. Electric and natural gas utilities and water supply may not be available for extended periods. Quarantines and travel restrictions may be imposed.

Then it is TOO LATE to prepare.

A pandemic may come in waves, each of which could last for six to eight weeks. The 1918-1919 pandemic came in three waves. There is no telling in advance what percentage of the population will be infected, how many of those infected will die, and how many waves the pandemic will have.  The world's population has no immunity to the current H5N1 virus, the most likely candidate for the next pandemic. Consequently, it is very possible that 30%-40% of the population will become sick. Our entire health care system would be completely overwhelmed. Currently the H5N1 virus kills over 50% of the people it infects, even in places where the medical treatment of the victims has been excellent. With terrible frequency, the virus renders its survivors with severe, long-lasting side effects.

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Contact  Marilyn J. Bardsley  at   bardsleym@courttv.com

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