By Marilyn Bardsley

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Human-to-Human (H2H) comes out of the closet

WHO cannot guarantee that H5N1 will turn into a pandemic strain and, if it does, when it will happen, any more than people on the Gulf Coast knew for certain where Katrina would hit and what strength it would pack when it did hit. But those uncertainties didn't stop officials and forecasters from warning the region days in advance and cable news broadcasters from almost non-stop coverage as Katrina moved closer. The rationale was that everyone should be as prepared as possible as soon as the danger was recognized.

A pandemic can emerge as quickly as a hurricane and engulf the entire world in a few weeks on the wings — not of migratory birds — of big metal "birds" with airline logos on their sides. One big difference is that one can evacuate from the path of a hurricane, but the pandemic will be global.

Now that most people, at least in western countries, know that the deadly H5N1 strain of avian flu is the most likely candidate for the next pandemic, many are watching the news for any sign that a major evolutionary change in the virus has occurred. The change that people have been trained to look for by countless media reports is that the virus has adapted to humans and can be easily transmitted from person to person like the annual flu.

Earlier this year, WHO did not admit to any human-to-human transmission, despite a number of very suspicious family clusters in Asia, Turkey, Iraq and Azerbaijan. In every single case, WHO used some excuse or another to hide these human-to-human transmissions from the media and the public.

Contact Marilyn Bardsley at darkhorse@crimelibrary.com

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