By Marilyn Bardsley

March 16, 2006

(Crime Library) —The media has finally embraced the bird flu and predictably "experts" are showing up regularly on the talk shows. Some of these "experts" are self-proclaimed and turn out to be physicians who are promoting a book or even popular talk show hosts. Several are out there on the airwaves telling people that preparation for the bird flu is stupid and that the U.S. government is exaggerating the pandemic threat. This is what everyone wants to hear. It's all hysteria, right? Remember SARS? Remember the plastic sheet and duct tape? Bird flu is just one more of these silly U.S. government alarms.

On the other side of the fence, the U.S. health care establishment, Health and Human Services Sec. Mike Leavitt and Center for Disease Control's Dr. Julie Gerberding are going around the country urging local governments, businesses and individuals to prepare. And states are responding by putting together comprehensive plans for a pandemic flu.

"Pandemics happen," Leavitt said. "They have happened for centuries, and there's no reason to believe the 21st century will be any different.

"The 20th century saw three pandemics, the worst of which was the 1918-19 Spanish flu that killed an estimated 50 million people globally, 500,000 of whom were American. The last two pandemics, in 1968 and 1957, were considered mild.

"Because viruses mutate often and vaccines take time to mass produce safely and effectively, it will take about six months to create a vaccine after the virus that causes a pandemic is identified, Leavitt said."

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that a mild pandemic would infect an estimated 75 million Americans, killing 100,000. A severe pandemic, such as the one in 1918, would infect an estimated 90 million Americans, killing 2 million.

But will this H5N1 bird flu virus that is spreading rapidly around the world and that is due to arrive in the U.S. in a few months really turn into a pandemic?

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Contact Marilyn Bardsley at darkhorse@crimelibrary.com

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